Westport, Connecticut Moves

As we begin the new year, the crystal balls have come out and there have been a wide range of predictions for how the housing market will perform in 2012. I have read that this year we will see a minor recovery, that pent up demand will drive a major recovery, that prices will fall through the first half of the year but pick up, starting in June, that prices won't begin to rebound until 2013, and so on. You get the picture. 

While overall forecasts may be useful in determining the state of the economic recovery, they are not really relevant for the home buyer or seller. The numbers that should be important to them are the statistics for their local market.

According to NAR, 2007 existing home sales posted the largest drop in 25 years, while in Westport, this segment showed a 6% gain. The precipitous drop did not hit Westport until 2008, when a third fewer single-family homes (existing and new construction) sold, compared with the previous year. By 2009, only half as many homes sold, than in 2004. The downtrend was not as steep for prices.  Median sale price peaked in 2007, at $1,400,000 and only showed a 4% decline, the following year. By 2009, however, median sale price fell to $1,188,500, below 2005 levels. 

The trend line for unit and dollar sales began to diverge in 2010. That year, the number of Westport single-family homes sold surged 40% vs. 2009, although remaining considerably below the highs posted in the first half of the decade.  2011 sales were relatively flat, with only a 2% decline.  At the same time, median sale price continued to trend down.

The median sale price for a single-family home was $1,085,625, in 2011, roughly equal to the median selling price in 2004. At this point, there is no evidence that prices are rebounding, any time soon.

This data is compiled from the Consolidated Multiple Listing Service and may not always be accurate. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of this information. You should verify any information that is important to your buying.

One method for assessing the activity of the housing market is by calculating the absorption rate. The rate is determined by dividing the current number of active listings by the average number of homes selling each month. The resulting figure shows the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of active listings. A normal or balanced market would have a five to six month supply of homes. A seller's market, reflecting a limited number of homes for sale, would have a one to four month supply. A supply time of seven months or more would indicate a buyer's market. 

Supply Time           Market Description
1 to 4 months           Seller's Market
5 to 6 months           Normal Market
7 months or more     Buyer's Market

Using the preceding twelve months as a determinant for calculating average monthly sales, the current absorption rate for Westport single-family homes is 8.8 months. According to the above chart, this would indicate that Westport is currently in a Buyer's Market. However, as the case with most averages and generalizations, they rarely tell the whole story.

Analyzing the data by price point gives a clearer picture of market activity. The overall absorption rate for homes listed at $1 million or less is 4.6 months. While a few price ranges in this segment have supply times above a normal market, there is generally limited inventory, creating a seller's market at the lower end. At the same time, there is an abundance of inventory for homes in the higher price points. There is a two and a half year supply of homes selling at $2.5 million or more. The absorption rate for listings priced $4 million or more is thirty-nine (39) months, or over three years. 

This data is compiled from the Consolidated Multiple Listing Service and may not always be accurate. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of this information. You should verify any information that is important to your buying.

The Westport housing market ended on a ho-hum note. On an annual basis, single-family home sales were off two percent (2%) compared with 2010. While unit sales remained comfortably ahead of 2008 and 2009, they were well off the highs posted in the previous decade.

Prices continued to soften. The median sold price of a single-family home, for 2011, was $1,085,625.  This represented a five percent (5%) decline from the 2010 median sold price of $1,145,000. The bulk of the sales were for homes selling between one and two million dollars. This segment represented forty percent (40%) of total units sold, for both years. However, the shape of the market changed at the extreme ends. Only half as many homes sold for $4 million or more, in 2011, compared with a year ago (7 vs. 14.) At the same time, two and a half times as many homes sold under $400,000, this year.

Despite devastating snowstorms that brought activity to a halt, previously negotiated transactions managed to close during the first quarter of 2011 and units sales of single-family homes remained flat compared with 1Q10. Pent up demand took hold during the second quarter of the year. Units sold surged thirty-two percent (32%) vs the comparable period, a year ago. The second half of the year was a disappointment. Seventeen percent (17%) fewer homes sold during the third quarter, while fourth quarter totals fell twenty-two percent (22%.) As a percentage of total single-family homes sold, the fourth quarter of 2011 posted the smallest contribution to annual sales since 2005.

Single-Family Home Sales - 2011 Statistics

Unit sold - 344
Average Sold Price - $1,338,229
Median Sold Price - $1,085,625
Highest Sold Price - $6,300,000
Lowest Sold Price - $215,000
Average Days on Market - 105

This data is compiled from the Consolidated Multiple Listing Service and may not always be accurate. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of this information. You should verify any information that is important to your buying.